There is one bias to which we are exposed time and again. One trick which is played on us over and over.
At its simplest, we can spot it easily but unfortunately, there are many occasions when it sneaks in under your guard and you have to be ready to recognize it for what it is.
Let’s start with the classical illustration and then we can go from there.
Imagine a boat full of pilgrims crossing a stormy sea. The weather worsens and the boat starts to flounder. In desperation, the pilgrims gather on the deck and pray for salvation. The storm quietens and the ship arrives in port. When the story is told it is hailed as an act of God and proof of the power of prayer.
So where is the fault in this logic? What we are not seeing are all the cases where people prayed and were not saved. We are looking only at the winning ticket and not seeing the losers.
Let me now put this into a more up to date situation. Think of those billboards or adverts which show the winner of the lottery. You see them holding their cheque and smiling. Don’t they look just like your neighbor or friends? And if they have won why can’t you? What you are not seeing are the million or more other people who also played the lottery and lost.
The hack is always asking yourself this question:
” If I am looking at a winner then where are all the losers?” That way you won’t be deceived into thinking how easy it will be to follow in their footsteps.